final 3 ? השרדות עונה 3, הגמר: ליעד, טלכו ושי

our family watches survival/survivor “השרדות” avidly.

realities are good for all ages and all levels of interest.

my 4 year old, Tal, is facinated if she knows/recoginizes the names of contenstens and something about them or their character.

what i like, is the family discussion about the characters and the plots contirved in the social dynamics.

 

this season of the Israeli Survivor is wonderful. the characters are fun, especially after Ziv is out.

and there is plenty of room for surprises as there is no Trinity or Iron Axis.

therefore,  IMNSHO, in my (not so humble) opinion, now is a great time to starting a contest for guesses about who the final 3 contestants will be.

if you agree that now is a great time to make the guess, please read on.

i doubt that i will be able to guess, but it would be fun to try.

my initial Key is that a strong threesome can make it to the final.

why?

a bit of backwards induction.

the final 3 can be an alliance of 3 out of the final 5.

the final 5 can be a dominant alliance of 8. (not 9 because of veto)

so, a strong 3 (with 2 others) can dominate a tribal counsel of 8 even without the powerful Veto power.

since that 3 with 2 others can make it to the final 5, IF (and this is a big IF), they keep their alliance they are in the final.

note there is some game theory involved. human emotions. psychological scratches. behavioralism. this is fun (and very hard to predict).

note that at this point, the fibonacci series is highly significant, and 2,3,5,8 are dominant numbers to some degree on how alliances can unfold.

this final 3, especially in order to survive the final 5,  is composed of  a strategist,  a capable person (usually wins a hasinot/immunity – not just for physical abilities),  and a cute person who tags along (this rule is an attempt to find order in chous and i do not think it will hold water over time).

dan mano, naama, noam,

arik, nata-li (atam meshaker, meshaker), and mirit.

talco, shai, and liad?

i have a lot of doubt about this, but think it would be fun to discuss. if there are enough comments, i will try and introduce other theories

 

 

 

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7 Responses to “final 3 ? השרדות עונה 3, הגמר: ליעד, טלכו ושי”

  1. רן ערד Says:

    וואו! זו פעם ראשונה שאני רואה ניתוח כה מעמיק של משחק שבדרך כלל נחשב לסוגה נמוכה. אני כמובן מכור ל”השרדות” כידוע לך. ואני מסכים שקשה לנחש את זהותם של אנשי השלישיה האחרונה, בעיקר בגלל ש – כמו בחיזוי מזג האוויר – שינויים קטנים יכולים להביא לשוני גדול בתוצאות (מישהו אמר תאורית הכאוס?). אגב – יש גם את השאלה המעניינת של איך המושבעים יבחרו את הזוכה מתוך השלישיה, אבל זו סוגיה נפרדת

    לעצם העניין – יש לי תחושה חזקה שטלכו יהיה בשלישיה וליעד היא בהחלט אפציה בתור טרמפיסטית עליו. לגבי שי אני הרבה פחות בטוח, כי אנשים כמו ליאורה ואביגייל יכולים להחליט שצריך להוריד אותו ולשכע את טומי ואוהד – ואת הדס שראתה אותו בוגד בריקי בתוכנית האחרונה.

    • adisababa Says:

      ran
      at this point, with the butterfly swinging wings all over the Philippines, who are your final 3?

      • רן ערד Says:

        בעקבות התוכנית של אתמול יש לי פתאום הרגשה שאלה יהיו טומי, אביגייל וטלכו, ושטומי יקח את המיליון

      • adisababa Says:

        ran, how do you see the dynamics of talco joining Abigail and tomy?

      • רן ערד Says:

        טלכו יודע להתחבב על כולם ומעביר את זמנו בלעשות זאת. אני מניח שהוא ידע להתחבר למועמדים לנצחון ברגע שיזהה אותם

  2. Rachel Says:

    Indeed, this season is full of surprises. people who think are in control, get an awakening in tribal council. Liora is a big one of those thinkers and, she as well will be booted off (frankly not a favorite of mine). Rumors had it that Shai and Talco have been seen spending time together in Cafe’s and other TLV hang out places, which lead many of us to believe that indeed they are the two out of the final three. but who is the third? Adi, i think you might be right about Liad and not b/c she is a strong candidate, quite the opposite. she is so dumb to be anything else. she has no meaning, therefore is the best candidate to ride along and be the last one to be booted off.

  3. adisababa Says:

    well
    as you can tell, i was wrong
    congratulations, shai

    prediction the future is tough, but you can learn in the process

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