HOT V.O.D

i really love the idea of VOD

especially if there would be a much larger selection

when i worked in ECI, in 1991, my room-mate guy went down under to australia to try and sell a VOD system

it is now 20 years later

However, the VOD experience still sucks:

• you wait too long.
• the system gets jammed to often.
• till you find and ‘download’ a movie it takes 20 minutes (just slightly less than the trip to blockbuster)
• dear customer, please unplug the devise and wait. and wait, and wait. now, plug back

the real genius of hot VOD, (and comcast as i experienced it in NewHaven last year) is that the service providers have reached a perfect equilibrium of poor service, but just good enough. they have really mastered that one.

just a bit worse, and many would leave, i would like to think. or, maybe we are all just lazy suckers who want to be mastered by service providers who silently reach into our pocket every month.

what efficiency! i salute them and despise them at the same time. how dare they?!!

i am sure there is another equilibrium point in which we as customers are much more satisfied, cost are not higher, and prices are lower, too. with much more usage. go for “חבילת מתעקשים ומרווחים”.

perhaps it will happen faster if we disconnect and stream on-line.

advise welcomed

final 3 ? השרדות עונה 3, הגמר: ליעד, טלכו ושי

our family watches survival/survivor “השרדות” avidly.

realities are good for all ages and all levels of interest.

my 4 year old, Tal, is facinated if she knows/recoginizes the names of contenstens and something about them or their character.

what i like, is the family discussion about the characters and the plots contirved in the social dynamics.

 

this season of the Israeli Survivor is wonderful. the characters are fun, especially after Ziv is out.

and there is plenty of room for surprises as there is no Trinity or Iron Axis.

therefore,  IMNSHO, in my (not so humble) opinion, now is a great time to starting a contest for guesses about who the final 3 contestants will be.

if you agree that now is a great time to make the guess, please read on.

i doubt that i will be able to guess, but it would be fun to try.

my initial Key is that a strong threesome can make it to the final.

why?

a bit of backwards induction.

the final 3 can be an alliance of 3 out of the final 5.

the final 5 can be a dominant alliance of 8. (not 9 because of veto)

so, a strong 3 (with 2 others) can dominate a tribal counsel of 8 even without the powerful Veto power.

since that 3 with 2 others can make it to the final 5, IF (and this is a big IF), they keep their alliance they are in the final.

note there is some game theory involved. human emotions. psychological scratches. behavioralism. this is fun (and very hard to predict).

note that at this point, the fibonacci series is highly significant, and 2,3,5,8 are dominant numbers to some degree on how alliances can unfold.

this final 3, especially in order to survive the final 5,  is composed of  a strategist,  a capable person (usually wins a hasinot/immunity – not just for physical abilities),  and a cute person who tags along (this rule is an attempt to find order in chous and i do not think it will hold water over time).

dan mano, naama, noam,

arik, nata-li (atam meshaker, meshaker), and mirit.

talco, shai, and liad?

i have a lot of doubt about this, but think it would be fun to discuss. if there are enough comments, i will try and introduce other theories

 

 

 

No contracts!

i gave a friend $50K a few month ago

no contracts

it is quite a bit of money and i am supposed to get it back next week

will i get any of it? some of it? all of it? with nice rewards?

i guess i will find out in a few weeks

but the point is, when are we willing to do deals without contracts?

in the Jewish diamond industry i understand it is common. it is a closed tight community with a high degree of trust. you break that trust once, and you are out of business.

in my business, lawyers make money, slow processes, and often, it turns out, do not do an outstanding job.

yet, i can not imagine a VC deal with no contracts

can you?

we can not get even to a ‘standard’ Term Sheet and every funding round takes about 45 days, usually arguing about the same things over again.

how inefficient!

jazz is negotiation

michael wheeler, HBS

for his articles, press here. including ethics, rules change, and credibility

key takeaways:

emotions are contagious. they  also reinforce themselves. smiling makes you happy

‘emotional wake’ the after-taste, what people remember after you left.

‘likeability‘ can be learned. based on four traits: friendliness, relevance (do you connect on interests or needs?), empathy and “realness” (genuineness or authenticity).

Jazz

how can people who do not know each other create music together. is there a paradigm here. jazz is negotiation

two anxious people could connect positively as well

emotions

emotions are not mood.

youtube rushmore bill murry herman meets max’s brother

they are used for interpersonal

are we good at interpreting emotions?  trying to understand what others are feeling is difficult

seven universal emotions:

sadness, anger,surprise, fear, happiness

what about ‘nachat’ and ‘simcha l’ed’?

look at plutchik circumplex

good negotiator needs to be in 2 places both time. center stage, involved, engaged and on he balcony, observing. this cultivates curiosity, calm, creativity

book: ‘beyond reason‘, fisher shapiro: appreciation, affiliation, autunomy, status, role (identity). worth a visit

damasio: descartes’ error

emotions may disable decision-making but enable creativity

book: emotionally contagious

darren brown youtube russian scam.

book: fierce conversations. creating negative memory and positive emotions. very relevant about me:

“As a leader, in stressful circumstances, you may make
an off-hand, negative comment that might devastate someone who works for you.
Sometimes, you may not even be aware of the impact that your words have had.  Often, you
forget the incident, but the recipient can recall your words verbatim.  And long after he or
she has left your company, they will remember the negative psychological experience that
was created.”
book: Likeability factor.

adi’s emphasis/bias:

open

feel fun, (not calm) not anxious. calm is over rated.

detach

use breaks. silence is over used.

prepared – backwards induction. personal research.

trust your emotions

____________

about me, emotional afterglow, vs aftermath

what does not kill you

sometimes weakens you

key takeaway

• Selective perception – We actively screen-out information that we do not think is salient. (See prejudice.)

_______________

we have a tendency to rationalize that ‘this awful relationship’ some how was good for me

you fell like you won, not realizing how well you could have done. what is the whole range?

Concessions:

• flinch
• be silent: you make fewer concessions. others feel uncomfortable and make concessions. people want to fill silent periods.
• find out what they care about and give it cheaply

leigh thompson has a good site on negotiating your job offer

know the bargaining zone