a discussion based human security report
world is a safer place because cold war ending and post colonialism conflicts are over. fewer wars, fewer deaths. nice ah?
more civil wars – internal vs inter-state
more non-state actors. wishing to become a state? are we heading to many small states and some superstructures?
ethnicity matters. ethnics wars are on the rise. identity matters
but still a lot of small conflicts, no big ones. formal definitions ‘civil conflict’ (25 deaths), ‘civil war’ (1000)
- wars are changing. endless, small, non-state, mutli-rebels civil conflicts.
- only one parameter is statistically significant. GDP is a predictor of war. so if you are poor, you are really screwed
- peace through fear. balanced conflict may cause quiet
- with so many potential reasons for a civil conflict/war it is surprising how few there are
- social scientist are envious of scientists
- no research on war and lack of water! want a phd thesis? take a look at homer dickenson
- repeat small problems are acceptable, a single big one is not!
- are third parties facilitators or causes to internal conflicts?
perhaps less formal wars. but
- are we safer?
- different wars, more difficult to deal with.
- wars/conflicts are longer and do not end
- so it seems to me we are looking in the rear-view mirror vs thru the windshield
Nigeria has all the makings of a country to be troubled, but according to formal measures it is not. just small conflicts. poor, oil, many ethnics, strong militia, inequality of wealth, corruption, big business.
a few fresh angles:
- proliferation of ak47, younger people play at war, power taken from older people, less rulers, harder to control
- urbanization as s deterrent to war
- politicizing the self vs the self politicizing? a theory that identity and ethnicity brings you into war. a counter thesis: civil wars allow every-day politics to come to play that otherwise would not. so it is now easier to kill. a powerful mechanism.