elementary game theory:
think of a duel. see pushkin. onegin book VI stanzas 29, 30, 31
- we have a positive bias regarding our abilities
- so some cultures are too proactive – ‘go down swinging’ . ‘first mover’s advantage’ is not a rule, it is sometimes true. many times 2nd mover has an advanatage
so you better look active, but many times, it is actually best to do nothing. how relevant for me.
- incentives matter. they determine outcomes
- think selection.
look for selection especially in data.
try to make sure it is in your control.
create differences that will make ‘players’ self select.
adverse selection. sick people are more likely to take expensive insurance.