overconfidence

research has shown that when we are 99% sure, people are wrong 40% of the time.

people are overconfident

75% of us are above average

so we think we are right more than we are

why is anchoring so powerful? not completely understood yet

could be load

could be accessibility

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2 Responses to “overconfidence”

  1. Daniel Cohen Says:

    Hmm – I was sure that most people are BELOW average, and you just proved that most people are ABOVE average…

    Now seriously. We talked about anchoring in the past. On one hand, it’s clearly the best strategy in nego. Yet, in our industry, we a lot of times let the entrepreneurs suggest the right deal. Why?

  2. adisababa Says:

    this is a big issue
    it requires some thinking. my initial thought is that they have ‘monopoly’ power of the deal.
    how can we reframe?
    is there such a thing as re-frame or re-anchor?
    i think entrepreneurs would be willing for example to trade-off price for time to money. so this is a chance to rename the rules

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