trusting your gut

even-though Blink was popular, it cherry-picked

key takeaways:

do not always trust your gut, although it is a great feeling to do so

trust someone else’s gut?

whatever you will look for, you will find it. make sure you look for evidence.

find out what you want to be true, and test the opposite

moral dumbfounding. evidence (haidt) : our gut makes ethical or moral decisions, then we justify it

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do trust it when:

  • your gut has subconscious access to information
  • your gut has been there before and got clear feedback
  • your decision is close or trivial, but

check, is it really close?

bayes helps here because we tend to think things are close when they really are not

  • no time for anything else
  • when it is about how you feel, but

moods are a big factor in recall and affect decisions. so beware

and check your gut during different modes

Bayes rule:

how you should change your existing beliefs in the light of new evidence?

Mathematically, Bayes’ rule states

                 likelihood * prior
posterior = ------------------------------
          marginal likelihood or normalizing factor

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wilson uva article suggests that choosing a poster based on gut, vs based on logic, some time later satisfaction is higher if you choose because of gut

carter racing case (dispute resolution research center)

you are a racing team, an engineer feels something is wrong, has to do with temperature.

do you trust his gut?

moral dumbfounding

we have an ethical knee jerk

case of safe sex amongst brother and sister

people decide it is wrong, but logically can not support it

moral nihilism

the 4 questions of ethics and suggest moral relativism. wiki

  1. non-cognitivism. there are, in fact, no moral facts (van Roojen, 2004). But if moral statements cannot be true, and if one cannot know something that is not true, non-cognitivism implies that moral knowledge is impossible (Garner 1967, 219-220).
  2. what is the test for right or wrong
  3. even if there are right and wrong, why should i care (social norms)
  4. what are the right and wrong things

business ethics

it is hard to take personal ethics into business

tool: test your intuition with unnatural thought ‘violinist case’

you go to a concert. you wake up in a hospital. you have been operated. you find out your are the support system of the violinist. do you want to disconnect? if you do he dies. do you have to stay in the hospital to keep him alive? this is exactly an abortion case after rape. but people come up with different answers.

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